On Monday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) released its updated Long Range Forecast Outlook for the 2024 Southwest Monsoon Season (June-September), predicting a normal monsoon for Vidarbha this year.

India's monsoon season is vital for agriculture and the overall economy. The IMD forecasted above-normal rainfall for the core monsoon zone this season, providing significant relief amid ongoing heat waves and potential drought conditions. The monsoon rains are expected to be 106% of the long-term average of 87 cm, which is essential for irrigating crops, replenishing reservoirs, and supporting the $3.5 trillion economy.

Vidarbha, part of the adjoining areas of central India, is expected to receive a normal monsoon this year. The IMD press note indicated, “Below normal rainfall is most likely over many areas of northern and eastern parts of Northwest India and eastern part of Central India, and over some areas of Northeast India and southeastern parts of the South Peninsula.”

While above-normal rainfall can enhance agriculture and water resources, it also poses risks such as flooding, transportation disruptions, public health issues, and ecosystem damage. To mitigate these risks, the IMD advises reinforcing infrastructure, implementing early warnings, enhancing surveillance and conservation efforts, and building suitable response systems in affected sectors.

The monsoon season, from June to September, delivers nearly 70% of the annual rainfall necessary for agriculture and water resources.

With 52% of India's cultivated area relying on rain-fed irrigation, the forecast of above-normal rainfall is expected to boost farm output and economic growth, potentially reducing food price inflation. However, rainfall distribution will vary across the country, with normal to above-normal rainfall predicted for central and southern peninsular regions and below-normal rainfall for the northeast.